Toby Crabel on Vanishing Edges, AI Limits, and Future of Markets | Top Traders Unplugged | Ep.152

Description

Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change. #toptraders #investing #trendfollowing Timestamps 01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career 03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure 06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge 08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time 14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets 17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants 20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior 24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis 32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies 39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge 40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading 51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume 56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime? Full episode can be found here: https://toptradsersunplugged.com/152 Subscribe to our podcast: iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels-kaastrup-larsen-engaging/id888420325?mt=2 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW Follow us on social media: TWITTER: https://twitter.com/TopTradersLive (@TopTradersLive) FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/toptradersunplugged INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/toptradersunplugged SOUNDCLOUD: https://soundcloud.com/toptradersunplugged-com Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/crabel-capi