Inflation looms. How bad will it be?

Description

In this episode, Monika unpacks the growing inflation pressures quietly building beneath the economy and explains why the recent ₹3 fuel price hike is likely only the beginning of a longer and more uncomfortable adjustment cycle. She breaks down the widening gap between wholesale inflation and consumer inflation, showing how the government and oil companies had been absorbing massive fuel losses for months before finally passing some of the burden to consumers. From rising transportation costs to the ripple effects on household expenses, she explains how inflation slowly spreads through every corner of daily life. She also warns that while food prices have remained relatively manageable so far, risks from a weak monsoon and rising fertiliser costs could soon intensify the pressure.She then zooms out to examine the larger global and economic backdrop shaping this decade. What began as a period of strong growth potential for India has instead collided with war-driven supply shocks, volatile commodity prices, and slowing global growth. Monika discusses why higher inflation will likely mean higher interest rates, more expensive loans, slower economic momentum, and greater market volatility in the months ahead. Yet she also cautions against falling into panic or “collapse thinking,” arguing that India still has the policy capacity to manage the crisis. Her advice throughout is grounded and practical: postpone unnecessary expenses, avoid risky speculation, maintain liquidity, and focus on financial resilience rather than dramatic portfolio changes. The larger message is one of disciplined realism — difficult periods require prudence, patience, and perspective, not fear.In listener queries, Abhishek Kumar seeks guidance on building separate investment plans for his daughter’s education and his retirement while planning an eventual return to India, leading to a discussion on long-term SIPs, NRE investing, and disciplined asset allocation; Meera asks how to thoughtfully deploy a ₹1 crore windfall after exiting direct equi