Why the most expensive Seed deals are the cheapest | E2299

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This Week In Startups is made possible by:NetSuite - Netsuite.com/TWiSTDeel - Deel.com/TWiSTSquarespace - Squarespace.com/TWiSTTwo days before SpaceX launches the largest IPO in history at a flat $135/share, our VC roundtable drops a scorcher: The top 1% of seed deals might actually be underpriced. Plus: the "Sequoia scam" dual-tranche controversy, tokens-for-equity deals, and whether Claude Fable 5 is a true step function.Tomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures), Michael Downing (Castalia Capital), and Paige Doherty (Behind Genius Ventures) join Alex to go deep on Seed investing, startup economics, AI spend, and the impact of smarter AI on the founder journey.Guest Links:Tomasz Tunguz: https://x.com/ttunguzTheory Ventures: https://theoryvc.com/Michael Downing: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaeldowning/Castalia Capital: https://castalia.capital/Paige Doherty: https://x.com/paigefinnnBehind Genius Ventures: https://www.behindgeniusventures.comShow Links:Anthropic’s IPO announcement: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-secOpenAI’s IPO announcement: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/Bending Spoons F-1 filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2004711/000110465926071170/tm2613674-7_f1.htmSpaceX IPO filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026040364/spaceexplorationtechnologib.htmBrendan Foody’s post on Sequoia: https://x.com/BrendanFoody/status/2063470286515683759Claude Fable 5: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5OpenRouter data on Chinese models: https://openrouter.ai/rankings?view=daySaronic: https://www.saronic.com/MotherDuck: https://motherduck.com/Nox Metals: https://noxmetals.co/Timestamps:0:00 Tomasz Tunguz, Michael Downing & Paige Doherty join2:07 The SpaceX IPO and the IPO window4:22 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!6:30 The new bar: 10x growth (not 3x) to raise a great Series A8:46