Trade wars, shooting wars and the AI investment boom

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Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks another turbulent week for the global economy. He talks to David Wilder about the latest escalation in the US trade war, the economic fallout from rising tensions with Iran and higher oil prices and why the AI investment boom continues to reshape growth in the US and China.Trade war: What's behind the Trump administration's latest tariff announcements and why global trade has remained surprisingly resilient.Shooting war: After oil $100 a barrel again, what are the implications for inflation and central banks if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate?AI boom: How AI investment is now the major driver of growth in both the US and China, and what happens if the boom turns to bust? Related contentFed preview: Rate hikes coming, but not until Septemberhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-fed-watch/rate-hikes-coming-not-until-septemberBank of England preview: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in playhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/boe-watch-boe-hold-rates-energy-prices-keep-rate-hikes-playWhat is the future of US tariffs?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/what-future-us-tariffs