Competitive Intervention, Proxy War, and Military Assistance: Anderson, Eyre, and Kuhlman

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Description: Episode 146 examines the impact of external military assistance on civil wars.  Summary This conversation delves into the complexities of competitive intervention in civil wars, exploring the types of military aid provided, how external support influences conflict dynamics, and implications for practitioners and policymakers. The discussion highlights the prevalence of external interventions, the escalation dynamics involved, and the moral dilemmas faced by intervening states. Our guests emphasize the need for a nuanced understanding of these interventions, particularly in the context of an increasingly multipolar world where we anticipate competitive intervention and proxy wars will increase. Takeaways Competitive intervention is characterized by opposing military assistance from different states. 75% of civil wars over the past 200 years have experienced external military assistance. This is very common. Weapons transfers are the most common form of external support in conflicts. External aid significantly impacts the duration and dynamics of civil wars. Competitive interventions are associated with a 50% decline in the likelihood of conflict termination. Ethnic dynamics can complicate civil war outcomes but do not universally determine conflict duration. Non-state actors are increasingly involved in providing support in civil conflicts. The rise of multipolarity may lead to increased competitive interventions. Escalation dynamics complicate the nature of military support in conflicts. Specifically escalation concerns will lead donors to give enough support to keep the conflict going, but not enough to enable a decisive victory.  Policymakers should consider the moral implications of prolonging conflicts through intervention. Future conflicts will require a diverse range of military capabilities and strategies.  General (retired) Wayne Eyre served as Chief of the Defence Staff in the Canadian Armed Forces from 2021 to 2024, Canada’s highest-ranking military officer. With more than 30 years of