The Illusion of Control in Modern Markets ft. Yoav Git | Systematic Investor | Ep.393

Description

Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge. #toptraders #investing #trendfollowing Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the series 01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments 01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning 04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes 06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly 09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality 14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down 17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty 24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints 27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic 37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations 41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets 49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained 56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction Full episode can be found here: https://toptradsersunplugged.com/si393 Subscribe to our podcast: iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels-kaastrup-larsen-engaging/id888420325?mt=2 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW Follow us on social media: TWITTER: https://twitter.com/TopTradersLive (@TopTradersLive) FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/toptradersunplugged INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/toptradersunplugged SOUNDCLOUD: https://soundcloud.co