Lloyd's of London CEO: Autonomous Weapons Are Rewriting War Risk

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(Episode 47) AI and drone warfare will force a “complete reimagining” of how conflict risk is calculated and insured, the chief executive of Lloyd’s of London has warned, because traditional assumptions about how wars escalate may no longer hold.Patrick Tiernan, who runs the 337-year-old insurance marketplace, told the Big Boss Interview that autonomous weapons and AI-driven decision-making could remove the warning signs and diplomatic pauses that have historically allowed insurers to adjust cover as conflicts intensify.“When we talk about the way war is insured at the moment, it assumes that it’ll build up, that there’ll be breaks in there, and that you can increase the cover,” he said. “It’s very possible that won’t be the case as there is more drone warfare, more artificial intelligence in the decision-making. So we’re going to have to completely reimagine how we cover that.”His warning comes as governments increase defence spending and NATO allies reassess their military commitments. Tiernan said Lloyd’s must ensure it has the capacity to insure growth in defence, energy and infrastructure, while being clearer about which forms of defence it supports.He said the current risk environment is unlike anything in Lloyd’s history, with physical infrastructure, data and cyber systems, financial services and the international rules-based order all under pressure at the same time. “We are very underprepared for the risks we’re facing because we rely on things that maybe won’t be there tomorrow,” he said.Tiernan also warned that the “protection gap” between economic losses and what is actually insured is widening. He said businesses and governments can no longer assume the state will step in when disaster strikes, arguing that high debt levels mean governments may not have the same financial firepower they had in the past.He called on governments to spell out what they will and will not protect, so private capital can price the remaining risk. Businesses, he said, are being “wilfully ignorant” if they fail to understan