Ep. 018 - Stop Saying Half of 2026 US Datacenter Capacity Is Canceled (Datacenter, Energy) | Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen, Ellie Holbrook, Jordan Nanos

Description

Bloomberg said half of 2026 US data center capacity is delayed. The SemiAnalysis Data Center, Energy, and Industrials team pulled the underlying report and found a broken denominator. Amazon alone built 4GW in 2025 and is adding 5GW plus in 2026. CoreWeave adds a gigawatt, all under construction. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO), Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower), and Ellie Holbrook join Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) as they walk through why the number is wrong and what the real forecast shows. The team covers behind the meter power generation reaching 40GW by 2028, Oracle's New Mexico problem, and the gas turbine supply chain that is running toward peak. They break down the three types of data center delays, how OEMs are responding, and where solar, batteries, and nuclear fit. 00:00 Intro00:51 The "half of capacity is canceled" myth04:43 Why early stage projects get canceled08:06 Three types of data center delays08:40 Oracle's New Mexico problem13:47 Behind the meter: 40GW by 202818:50 How OEMs are responding20:24 Signed deal to powered GPUs23:44 Hyperscaler market share27:49 How SemiAnalysis tracks data centers31:34 What behind the meter means33:31 The gas turbine supply chain38:22 Peak turbine42:54 Solar, batteries, and nuclear46:13 Final thoughts48:20 Favorite projectsReferenced:Stop Saying Half of 2026 US Datacenter Capacity Is Canceled: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/stop-saying-half-of-2026-us-datacenterUS Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-The-Meter Datacenter by 2028?: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/us-grid-constraints-towards-40gw